Lets get into the issue now :
The Barnum Effect is the observation that individuals will give high accuracy ratings to descriptions of their personality that supposedly are tailored specifically for them, but are in fact vague and general enough to apply to a wide range of people.
This effect can provide a partial explanation for the widespread acceptance of some beliefs and practices, such as astrology, fortune telling, and some types of personality tests like the Myers-Briggs test.
"Barnum effect" is an expression that seems to have originated with psychologist Paul Meehl, in deference to circus man P. T. Barnum's reputation as a master psychological manipulator who is said to have claimed "we have something for everybody."
Psychologist Bertram R. Forer, in 1948, gave a personality test to his students telling them they were each receiving a unique personality analysis that was based on the test's results and to rate their analysis on a scale of 0 (very poor) to 5 (excellent) on how well it applied to themselves.
Results showed, each received the same analysis as following :
-A great need for other people to like and admire you.
-A tendency to be critical of yourself.
-One has a great deal of unused capacity which one has not turned to their advantage.
-While one has some personality weaknesses, they are generally able to compensate for them.
-Disciplined and self-controlled outside, one tends to be worrisome and insecure inside.
-At times one has serious doubts as to whether they have made the right decision or done the right thing.
-One prefers a certain amount of change and variety and become dissatisfied when hemmed in by restrictions and limitations.
-One prides in own self as an independent thinker and does not accept others' statements without satisfactory proof.
-One finds it unwise to be too frank in revealing themselves to others.
-At times, the person is extroverted, affable, sociable, while at other times he is introverted, wary, reserved.
-Some of the aspirations tend to be pretty unrealistic.
-Security is one's major goals in life.
The average rating came out as 4.3, but only after the ratings were turned in was it revealed that each student had received identical copies assembled by Forer from various horoscopes.
From the outcome of the profile, a number of statements could be applied equally to anyone. These statements later to be known as Barnum statements.
Thus he quoted his famous saying "there's a sucker born every minute." Barnum did not originate the expression though it has often been attributed to him.
David Hannum, leader of a syndicate that had purchased the Cardiff giant, was quoted as saying "There's a sucker born every minute" when he heard of Barnum's plan to display a fake of the fake giant.
A good example of of vague characterization can be seen when people believe what is said about them in psychometric tests, personality profiles, astrological predictions, and so on.
P. T. Barnum, believed that a good circus had "a little something for everybody."
Detailed studies show that the higher accuracy ratings are achieved if the following are true:
-the person believes that the analysis applies only to him or her.
-the person believes in the authority of the evaluator.
-the analysis lists mainly positive traits.
People believe in personality tests and types because they include the "illusion of efficacy," "illusory correlation," "self-deception," "self-fulfilling prophecy," "illusory thinking," "numerolotry," and "gnosis." The appeal of gnosticism is in itself deceptive, because the heart is deceitful and desperately wicked.
Loopholes in Reasoning and Arguments : How Gullible is Barnum Effect ? :
Barnum effect is an issue of selectively noticing the things which are preferable while ignoring those things which are not. Studies of how people receive astrological predictions have revealed the influence of the Barnum Effect.
Here's an insight into the issue :
C.R. Snyder and R.J. Shenkel published an article in March 1975, issue of Psychology Today about a study of astrology which they performed on college students.
Every member in the group of students received the exact same, vaguely worded horoscope about their characters and all the students were very impressed with how accurate it sounded.
A few were asked to explain in more detail just why they thought it was accurate - as a result, these students thought it was even more accurate.
At Lawrence University, psychologist Peter Glick along with some of his colleagues performed another study on students there, first dividing them into skeptics and believers.
Both groups thought that their horoscopes were very accurate when the information was positive, but only the believers were inclined to accept the validity of the horoscopes when the information was negatively worded.
Of course, the horoscopes were not individually prepared as they were told - all of the positive horoscopes were the same and all of the negative ones were the same.
A captivating study by N.D. Sunberg in 1955 was when he had 44 students take the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory (MMPI), a standardized test used by psychologists to evaluate a person's personality.
Two experienced psychologists interpreted the results and wrote personality sketches - what the students received, however, was the real sketch and a fake one.
When asked to pick the more accurate and more correct sketch, 26 of the 44 students picked the fake one.
This is the fallacy of "personal validation" i.e. an individual cannot be relied upon to personally validate such estimations of their fortune or character.
The barnum effect sparks even with personnel managers, who should know this effect by training (Stagner, 1958).
Magicians use a method called, "The Art of Cold Reading" to give people the impression of a very accurate psychic reading. This same method is used by quack psychics and others to separate the gullible from their money.
The ethical magician admits that he or she uses tricks to create illusions. The unethical magicians use the same devices to claim to have magic powers.
Penn and Teller, Amazing Randi, Harry Houdini, are examples of real magicians who reveal secrets to expose phonies, quacks and frauds who claim to have psychic powers, mind over matter, or to communicate with the dead.
The Ultimate Reality is whatever our backgrounds and however rationally we may tend to act in the normal course of our lives, we like to hear nice things said about us. We like to feel connected to people around us and to the universe at large. Astrology offers us just such feelings.
It is the ability of a person to find coherency and meaning in a variety of disparate and often contradictory statements can be seen as a sign of real creativity and a very active mind.
It requires good pattern-matching and problem-solving skills to develop a reasonable reading. These are the same skills we use in order to derive meaning and understanding in our daily lives.
In short, The Forer effect seems to explain, in part atleast, why so many people think that pseudosciences "work".
Astrology, astrotherapy,biorhythms, cartomancy, chiromancy, the enneagram, fortune telling, graphology, etc., seem to work because they seem to provide accurate personality analyses.
The Barnum Statements :
Following statements are often open-ended or give the reader the maximum amount of "wiggle room" in a reading :
"I sense that you are sometimes insecure, especially with people you don't know very well."
"You have a box of old unsorted photographs in your house."
"You had an accident when you were a child involving water."
"You're having problems with a friend or relative."
The High morale :
-Self-validation is no validation.
-Do not be cornered into belief by a psychic.
-Be skeptical and ask for proof.
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